summaries of ongoing research
Sudershan Gangrade - University of Tennessee
Research - Potential risks on critical energy-water infrastructure, specifically major dams and nuclear power plants
Critical infrastructures require highly-conservative design criteria that may withstand the most severe hydro-climatic extreme events. These design criteria are based on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) estimates. Theoretically, PMF is upper bound of flood that can occur over a given region and occurs under an adverse set of hydro-meteorological conditions. Since the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase in a warming climate, it enhances the need to more accurately quantify the risks from PMP and PMF under climate change.
My research proposal for Hydro Research Foundation Research Awards 2017 involves utilization of an integrated high-resolution process-based hydrometeorologic modeling framework to 1) develop a multi-ensemble future PMF projection based on best-available historic observations and future climate change simulations, 2) quantify the effects of climate change on PMF, and 3) assess the potential flood hazards on major energy-water facilities using probabilistic flood inundation maps. The end product will be multi-ensemble, high resolution probabilistic flood maps that illustrate uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization and hydro-meteorologic factors which can better inform decision-making for future emergency preparation.
Research - Potential risks on critical energy-water infrastructure, specifically major dams and nuclear power plants
Critical infrastructures require highly-conservative design criteria that may withstand the most severe hydro-climatic extreme events. These design criteria are based on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) estimates. Theoretically, PMF is upper bound of flood that can occur over a given region and occurs under an adverse set of hydro-meteorological conditions. Since the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase in a warming climate, it enhances the need to more accurately quantify the risks from PMP and PMF under climate change.
My research proposal for Hydro Research Foundation Research Awards 2017 involves utilization of an integrated high-resolution process-based hydrometeorologic modeling framework to 1) develop a multi-ensemble future PMF projection based on best-available historic observations and future climate change simulations, 2) quantify the effects of climate change on PMF, and 3) assess the potential flood hazards on major energy-water facilities using probabilistic flood inundation maps. The end product will be multi-ensemble, high resolution probabilistic flood maps that illustrate uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization and hydro-meteorologic factors which can better inform decision-making for future emergency preparation.